As Autumn Starts in Australia, COVID-19 Cases Gradually Starting to Rise

Medical News: As the crisp autumn breeze sweeps across Australia in mid-March 2025, health experts are observing a subtle but noticeable increase in COVID-19 cases nationwide. Recent data shared on social media platforms indicates that the risk of encountering someone currently infectious with the virus has risen to 0.4%, or about 1 in 239 people.
https://x.com/Mike_Honey_/status/1900479609411625383


 
This gentle uptick, detailed in updates from March 14, 2025, signals a shift as the country moves deeper into the cooler months, potentially paving the way for another wave of infections. This Medical News report, grounded in accessible data and real-time observations, aims to explain what this means for everyday Australians, even those without a medical background.
 
A Gentle Climb in Infection Rates
The latest figures, sourced from health.gov.au and visualized in public reports, reveal that the percentage of people estimated to be currently infectious has crept upward from earlier this year. By March 14, 2025, the national estimate reached 0.4%, up from lower levels in late 2024 and early 2025.
https://www.health.gov.au/topics/covid-19/monitoring-and-reporting#australian-respiratory-surveillance-reports

This translates to approximately 2.7 million Australians potentially carrying the virus at any given time, based on population estimates and a 10-day infectious period model. For the average person, this means there’s a 12% chance someone in a group of 30 could be infectious - a statistic that might make you pause at your next community event or workplace gathering.
https://mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-au-vaccinations/output/covid-19-au%20-%20report%20Weekly.pdf
 
The graph accompanying these updates shows a green line gently rising and falling over time, reflecting past waves driven by variants like XEC sub-lineages and now the emerging LP.8.1 sub-lineages and spawns. The current trend, described as “gently upwards,” suggests a slow but steady increase, unlike the sharp spikes of earlier pandemics. This gradual rise aligns with autumn’s arrival, a season often associated with respiratory virus surges due to cooler weather and more indoor activities.
 
The Role of New Variants
The uptick in cases isn’t just seasonal - it’s also linked to the virus’s ongoing evolution. Recent social media threads and reports highlight the LP.8.1 variant, a sub-lineage of the Omicron family, as a significant factor. This variant, which has been growing slowly in Australia, now accounts for about 15% of sequenced genomes, according to data up to February 17, 2025. Globally, LP.8.1. is seen as a potential challenger to the dominant XEC variants, which has been declining but still represents 52% of cases.
nt/publications/m/item/risk-evaluation-for-sars-cov-2-variant-under-monitoring-lp81">https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/risk-evaluation-for-sars-cov-2-variant-under-monitoring-lp81
 
Scientific updates note that LP.8.1. carries a mutation called K679R, which alters a part of the virus that helps it infect cells. While researchers are still exploring what this means, it could affect how easily the virus spreads or how severe it might be.
https://github.com/neherlab/SARS-CoV-2_variant-reports/blob/main/reports/variant_report_latest_draft.md
 
https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?aaMutations=S%3AK679R&nextcladePangoLineage=LP.8.1*
 
https://github.com/sars-cov-2-variants/lineage-proposals/issues/2199
 
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern
 
For now, its growth advantage over XEC sub-lineages is modest, at just 0.3% per day, indicating it’s not rapidly taking over but steadily gaining ground.
 
Impact on Vulnerable Groups, Especially in Aged Care
The rise in cases isn’t uniform across Australia. In New South Wales (NSW), public data shows particular concern in aged care facilities, where active cases among staff are approaching peak levels from the XEC wave in January 2025. As of March 14, 2025, NSW reported 184 active resident cases and 88 staff cases in aged care, a notable increase from earlier months.
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/aged-care.aspx
 
This trend highlights the vulnerability of older adults and healthcare workers, who face higher risks of severe outcomes from COVID-19.
 
The increase in aged care infections could strain resources and emphasize the need for renewed precautions, such as masking and better ventilation, in these settings. For families with loved ones in care homes, this news might spark discussions about safe visiting or ensuring staff have the support they need to stay healthy.
 
What This Means for Australians
For the average Australian, the 0.4% infection rate might seem low, but it’s a reminder that COVID-19 remains a presence. The 12% chance of encountering an infectious person in a group of 30 suggests everyday activities - like shopping, attending school events, or dining out - carry a slight but real risk. Public reports, available online, stress that while the current wave driven by LP.8.1 sub-lineages has relatively low peaks compared to past surges, caution is still necessary.
 
Public health measures, such as staying current with vaccinations, wearing masks in crowded indoor spaces, and practicing good hand hygiene, remain critical. While discussions about a new vaccine targeting JN.1 and potentially covering emerging mutations like LP.8.1 sub-lineages are ongoing, as noted in public comments, no official updates have been confirmed yet for the Australian winter season.
 
Looking Ahead: Preparing for Autumn and Beyond
As autumn progresses, health experts predict that cooler weather and increased indoor time could amplify the spread of LP.8.1 sub-lineages and other variants. Public data and global insights suggest Australia is following a seasonal pattern seen in previous years, with cases often peaking in winter. However, the slow growth of LP.8.1 sub-lineages mean any major surge might still be months away, providing time for preparation.
 
Individuals can help by monitoring symptoms, getting tested if feeling unwell, and staying informed about local case trends. For communities, ensuring access to testing, vaccines, and support for high-risk groups like aged care residents will be essential. Scientific studies, such as those on NCBI, indicate that SARS-CoV-2’s evolution is influenced by seasonal and environmental factors, reinforcing the need for ongoing vigilance.
 
Conclusion
In summary, as autumn begins in Australia in March 2025, COVID-19 cases are gradually rising, driven by the LP.8.1 sub-lineages and seasonal changes. With 0.4% of the population estimated to be infectious and vulnerable groups like aged care residents facing increased risks, staying cautious is vital. While the current wave isn’t as severe as past peaks, its steady growth warrants attention.
 
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