Insurance Industry Warns That COVID-19 Is Still Killing More Than We Realize and Excess Death Rates Might Remain High Until 2033!

Medical News: Hidden Death Toll from COVID Could Haunt the World for a Decade More
For many, COVID-19 feels like a fading memory - life has returned to normal, face masks have disappeared, and lockdowns are a thing of the past. Yet, in boardrooms of life insurance companies and among global health analysts, a grim reality is setting in - people are still dying in higher numbers than expected. And this silent surge in deaths, known as excess mortality, may persist well into the next decade.


Insurance Industry Warns That COVID-19 Is Still Killing More Than We Realize and Excess
Death Rates Might Remain High Until 2033!

According to a report last year from the Swiss Re Research Institute, countries like the United States and the United Kingdom may not see mortality rates return to pre-pandemic norms until 2028 in an optimistic scenario.
https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/topics-and-risk-dialogues/health-and-longevity/covid-19-pandemic-synonymous-excess-mortality.html
 
However, under a more realistic or even pessimistic projection, this Medical News report warns that elevated death rates could persist until 2033. The implications are significant, especially for life insurance firms, healthcare systems, and global population health. Excess mortality - a term describing the number of deaths exceeding what would be expected under normal circumstances - is now firmly on the radar of financial analysts and public health policymakers.
 
Why Are More People Still Dying
Swiss Re’s research points to COVID-19 and its ripple effects as the main culprits. The virus has not only caused direct respiratory failure in many but also left behind a trail of complications involving heart disease, cancer, and metabolic conditions like diabetes. Particularly in countries like the United States, there has been a noticeable and troubling rise in deaths due to cardiovascular disease - many of which are suspected to have been exacerbated or misclassified during the height of the pandemic.
 
Delays in routine medical care, missed diagnoses, and a generally overwhelmed healthcare infrastructure have also contributed to the rising death toll. Routine screenings for cancers and chronic diseases were postponed during the pandemic, and many illnesses worsened untreated. Analysts believe this interruption in care created a snowball effect, increasing death risks from multiple non-COVID conditions.
 
Global Patterns and Different National Realities
The excess mortality trend has not played out the same way in every country. Swiss Re's report outlines four different trajectories. In the United States, excess deaths peaked early but declined quickly, while the United Kingdom experienced a slower decline. Australia delayed its peak by nearly two years but managed a swift drop afterward. Canada’s mortality rates, however, gradually increased and peaked as late as 2022 and 2023, a reflection of how public health responses and vaccination strategies influenced outcomes.
 
Researchers observed that beyond respiratory causes, countries saw unexplained jumps in other death categories. Some of these shifts may be linked to changes in how deaths were reported or diagnosed - raising concerns over data accuracy during the pandemic years.
 
Insurers Forced to Reevaluate Long-Term Risks
Prudential and other large insurers are now reassessing how they calculate the long-term risks associated with life insurance. Yanela Frias, Prudential’s CFO, noted that their internal estimates already align with Swiss Re’s cautious outlook. While policyholders under individual life insurance plans seem to have fared better than the general population, group policies and retirement-related products have shown higher-than-expected mortality.
 
To adapt, insurers are now using advanced predictive modeling tools to reanalyze past data and adjust for potential future risks. These tools are helping to strip out “noise” in the data caused by shifting demographics and changes in insurance product structures.
 
Can Healthcare Innovation Turn the Tide
There is some hope on the horizon. Swiss Re suggests that with continued investment in healthcare and lifestyle improvements, mortality rates could potentially return to normal by 2028. This would require aggressive vaccination programs, better management of at-risk populations, widespread use of emerging treatments like personalized mRNA cancer vaccines, and improved access to healthcare services. Medical innovation combined with healthier lifestyles could be a game-changer in turning back the tide of death.
 
Paul Murray, CEO of Life & Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re, remains cautiously optimistic. He highlights that if the global community continues to push forward with advancements in treatment and prevention, the worst-case scenario could be avoided. But if the current trend continues unchecked, the world may be dealing with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic long after the virus itself has faded from headlines.
 
Conclusion
Excess mortality is not just a statistical anomaly - it’s a hidden crisis shaping the health and lifespan of entire populations. While COVID-19 may no longer dominate the news, its legacy lives on in the form of increased deaths from respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and metabolic disorders.
 
The pandemic also exposed the fragility of global healthcare systems and the danger of delays in care. If meaningful steps are not taken - from preventive health campaigns to innovations in medical treatment - the death toll could remain elevated for years, with devastating effects on families, economies, and public health systems. For now, the grim truth remains - COVID-19 is still killing, directly and indirectly, and may continue to do so for another decade.
 
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Read Also:
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/excess-death-study-shockingly-finds-that-more-younger-americans-aged-between-25-to-44-are-dying-earlier
 
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-doctors-unveil-hidden-excess-deaths-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-post-periods-totaling-about-112880
 
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shockingly-finds-that-many-excess-deaths-attributed-to-natural-causes-in-america-were-actually-uncounted-covid-19-deaths
 
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