Italian experts warn COVID-19 infections are being underreported and that the virus is not mild as claimed!

COVID-19 News: As the world grapples with the ongoing implications of COVID-19, a new analysis by Italian experts reveals that the current data on infections may be significantly underestimated. Contrary to the perception that the virus has become mild, these experts also caution that the reality may be far more alarming.


Italian experts warn COVID-19 infections are being underreported and
that the virus is not mild as claimed!

COVID-19 Cases in Italy: A Stark Underestimation
Recent data from Italy indicates a troubling underreporting of COVID-19 cases. While the official figures from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the Ministry of Health reported 17,000 cases in the last week of July 2024, a detailed analysis suggests the actual number could be closer to 75,000. This discrepancy highlights a potential oversight in the country's monitoring and reporting systems.
 
The analysis, conducted by a team of experts including epidemiologist Cesare Cislaghi, mathematician Maria Teresa Giraudo, and data scientist Manuele Falcone, was published in the journal Epidemiologia e Prevenzione.
https://epiprev.it/blog/made-in-blog/covid-oggi-piu-ricoverati-di-prima
 
Their study draws attention to a significant inconsistency between the number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations and the recorded cases.
 
Thailand Medical News would like to add that in fact, closer analysis of COVID-19 data being reported by governments across Europe, North America and even the Americas and Asia will show that there seems to be a variety of strategies deployed to deliberately underreport COVID-19 infections and to downplay the seriousness of every surge and also the seriousness of the variants involved.
 
Interestingly most of the mainstream media are not devoting their resources and investigative journalistic skills to uncover and detail out all this strategies in COVID-19 News coverages as it would be very interesting to their readers. Some of the strategies include delayed reporting, classification of cases, assignment of ICD codes, no-testing done,  etc
 
The Alarming Discrepancy in Hospitalization Data
One of the critical findings of this study is the dramatic shift in the ratio between daily new COVID-19 cases and hospital bed occupancy. During the period when Italy's Green Pass was in effect - a time when case detection was likely more accurate - the ratio of new daily cases to occupied hospital beds was over 6 to 1. However, recent data shows this ratio has plummeted to 1.4 to 1, suggesting that a large number of infections are going undiagnosed or unreported.
 
In the week of July 25-31, 2024, Italy reported 1,829 occupied hospital beds due to COVID-19, yet only 2,500 new infections were recorded per day. This di sparity suggests that the actual number of infections could be much higher than reported, with estimates indicating that over three-quarters of COVID-19 cases might be escaping detection.
 
What This Means for Public Health
The implications of this underreporting are profound. If the actual number of cases is as high as suggested, the public perception that COVID-19 has become a mild illness is not only inaccurate but dangerous. The data indicates that the virus continues to spread extensively, with many cases likely going undetected due to the lack of mandatory testing and reporting.
 
Moreover, the analysis points to a concerning increase in the severity of recent cases. Over the past three months, from May to July 2024, there has been a significant rise in hospitalizations relative to the number of reported infections. This trend contradicts the notion that COVID-19 is becoming less severe. Instead, it suggests that the virus remains a serious threat, particularly as the proportion of infections resulting in hospitalization has more than doubled compared to earlier in the pandemic.
 
The Changing Landscape of COVID-19 Monitoring
The study also delves into the historical trends of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations, offering insights into how the virus's impact has evolved over time. During the early stages of the pandemic, the detection of cases was closely tied to hospital admissions, with the majority of infections being diagnosed only when patients required hospitalization. As testing became more widespread and the Green Pass was introduced, the ratio of diagnosed cases to hospitalizations increased, reflecting a more comprehensive understanding of the virus's spread.

However, this trend has reversed in recent months. With the cessation of mandatory case registration with the local health authorities (ASL) and the growing use of self-administered antigen tests that are not officially recorded, the number of diagnosed cases has sharply declined. This decline, coupled with the continued high rate of hospitalizations, suggests that many COVID-19 cases are flying under the radar.
 
A Call for Renewed Vigilance
Given these findings, the experts emphasize the need for renewed vigilance in monitoring and controlling the spread of COVID-19. The current situation, they argue, is reminiscent of the early days of the pandemic when underreporting and delayed responses allowed the virus to spread unchecked. The experts urge the Italian government and health authorities to take proactive measures to curb the virus's spread, particularly as the country heads into the autumn and winter months, traditionally periods of higher transmission.
 
The researchers also highlight the importance of continuing public health measures such as voluntary isolation for those testing positive, frequent ventilation of indoor spaces, and the use of masks, especially around vulnerable individuals. Additionally, they call for a renewed push for vaccination booster programs to bolster immunity as the virus continues to circulate.
 
Preparing for the Future
As Italy prepares for the possibility of another surge in COVID-19 cases, the experts warn that the country must not become complacent. The potential for a significant increase in infections during the autumn and winter, coupled with the ongoing underreporting of cases, could strain the National Health Service and lead to severe public health consequences.
 
In conclusion, the experts assert that COVID-19 remains a pressing concern that cannot be dismissed as a mild illness. The virus continues to pose a significant threat, particularly if current trends of underreporting and rising hospitalizations persist. As such, it is crucial for both the public and the authorities to remain vigilant and take the necessary steps to mitigate the virus's spread. The researchers' analysis serves as a stark reminder that the battle against COVID-19 is far from over, and careful monitoring and intervention are essential to prevent another wave of infections.
 
The findings from this analysis underscore the need for ongoing public health efforts to contain the spread of the virus.
 
For the latest updates on COVID-19 News and other health-related news, keep on logging to Thailand Medical News.
 
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