Latest updates show that a new SARS-CoV-2 variant called MV.1 is likely to be the next contender to XEC variant

Medical News: The global landscape of SARS-CoV-2 variants continues to evolve, with the latest updates suggesting that a new SARS-CoV-2 variant called MV.1 may soon pose a significant challenge to the current dominant XEC variant.
https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nextcladePangoLineage=MV.1&
 

Latest updates show that a new SARS-CoV-2 variant called MV.1 is likely to be
the next contender to XEC variant

First identified in Maharashtra, India, MV.1 appears to be rapidly gaining ground worldwide, raising questions about its potential impact on future COVID-19 waves. Researchers are closely monitoring MV.1’s growth patterns and mutations, which may give it an edge over other emerging lineages, particularly in North America and parts of Asia.
 
MV.1’s Global Emergence and Characteristics
MV.1 originated in India in June 2024, evolving from the JN.1.49 lineage through MB.1.1.1. The variant’s mutations, including a reversion of the Spike K478T mutation to its ancestral Wuhan form, may be contributing to its growing prevalence. Initially, MV.1 was confined mainly to India; however, recent samples indicate its spread across various locations, including the United States, Mauritius, Singapore, and Australia.
 
Wastewater surveillance has proven valuable in tracking MV.1’s spread. In just the past two weeks, MV.1 has appeared in multiple U.S. states such as Kansas, Michigan, Massachusetts, Florida, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and New York.
 
Notably, MV.1 was found to be the dominant variant in Muskegon County, Michigan, and Miami, Florida, suggesting its potential to outcompete other variants in specific locales. In addition, data from Sullivan County, New Hampshire, shows MV.1 dominating wastewater samples in the region. However, out of 500 samples, it was not as widely prevalent, indicating that it may be in the early stages of establishment.
https://x.com/SolidEvidence/status/1855371933816143966
 
https://x.com/SolidEvidence/status/1853834491716153349
 
Comparative Growth of MV.1 vs. XEC and Other Contenders
MV.1’s competitive growth advantage has captured the attention of researchers. Globally, it shows a 4.4% growth rate per day, equivalent to about a 31% increase weekly against the JN.1. and DeFLuQE variants, the latter of which encompasses the KP.3.1.1 lineage. Although MV.1's growth is slightly slower than XEC's, it has nevertheless demonstrated a consistent upward trend in areas where it has gained a foothold.
 
The XEC variant, currently dominant in many regions, exhibits a growth advantage of around 4.9% per day globally. Given XEC’s rapid spread and dominance, it would take a strong contender to challenge its place, with LP.8.1 and MC .10.2 also among potential rivals besides MV.1
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes#readme
 
https://x.com/Mike_Honey_/status/1855717535238545717
 
LP.8.1 has gained attention for its success in parts of Asia and the United States, showing a 6% daily growth advantage over XEC. MC.10.2, with an 11.1% daily growth advantage, is emerging rapidly in Canada and New Zealand, suggesting a potential crossover with XEC in late November. Despite these contenders, MV.1’s rising presence across multiple continents may make it one of the most likely successors to XEC.

However, Thailand Medical News would like to warn readers that the SARS-CoV-2 variant issues are extremely dynamic as the various variants in circulation are rapidly spawning newer sub-lineages or are recombining with different variants to produce newer strains and sub-lineages with vary viral fitness and chracteristics. Hence newer viral strain contenders for predominance can emerge at any time.
 
Key Mutations and Potential Implications
MV.1’s evolution includes notable mutations that could influence its transmissibility and immune evasion. The reversion of the K478T mutation to its ancestral form, along with the presence of other mutations such as 346T, 456V, 478T, 493Q are key aspects that researchers believe may impact the virus’s behavior. These genetic changes distinguish MV.1 from previous lineages, potentially providing it with unique advantages over other SARS-CoV-2 variants.
 
The S:F456V, mutation, commonly found in cryptic lineages, had rarely been observed in circulation until now. With MV.1 containing this mutation, scientists are paying close attention to its transmission dynamics and its ability to evade immunity, particularly in vaccinated populations. Since MV.1 also harbors a reversion in the S:478 back to T - adjacent to the 456V mutation - it allows researchers to screen for it with a high degree of accuracy, especially in regions with comprehensive wastewater surveillance.
 
Global Implications and the Future of SARS-CoV-2 Variants
The emergence of MV.1 raises broader questions about the future trajectory of COVID-19. With several contenders - including LP.8.1, MC.10.2, and XEC.4 - all showing varying levels of growth advantage, predicting the next dominant strain remains challenging. However, MV.1’s unique genetic profile, combined with its relatively fast spread, may position it as one of the stronger candidates for dominance, especially as it continues to gain ground in underserved and undersampled regions.
 
Researchers emphasize the importance of continuous monitoring, as the ongoing adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 underscores the virus’s capacity for rapid evolution. Wastewater surveillance, in particular, will play an increasingly vital role in identifying emerging variants and providing timely data on their spread, especially as clinical testing decreases in frequency worldwide.
 
Conclusion: MV.1 as a Potential Game-Changer
As the battle for SARS-CoV-2 dominance intensifies, MV.1 stands out as a variant with significant potential. Its growth patterns, genetic mutations, and success in previously low-prevalence regions indicate that it could soon become a major player in the global COVID-19 landscape. While other variants like LP.8.1 and MC.10.2 are also showing strong growth, MV.1’s rapid spread across multiple continents suggests it may have the staying power needed to challenge XEC’s current dominance.
 
Continued research and monitoring are essential as scientists work to understand the implications of MV.1’s unique mutations and growth patterns. With the possibility of a new variant-driven wave on the horizon, staying informed and prepared is more crucial than ever.
 
Keep logging on to Thailand Medical News for the latest updates on SARS-CoV-2 variant emergence and spread and insights from leading research institutions.
 
Read Also:
 
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/sars-cov-2-xec-variant-shows-enhanced-immune-evasion-through-ntd-glycosylation
 
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/the-sars-cov-2-variants-that-could-drive-the-fall-winter-wave-xec-xed-mb-1-1-mw-1-and-xdv-1-1
 
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-recombinant-sars-cov-2-variant-xek-likely-to-be-the-next-predominant-strain-by-late-winter-superseding-xec