Nikhil Prasad Fact checked by:Thailand Medical News Team Jul 28, 2024 1 month, 3 weeks, 1 day, 13 hours, 20 minutes ago
COVID-19 News: In a significant development, COVID-19 cases in Italy have surged by 53.3% over the past week, rising from approximately 9,000 to 13,672. This alarming increase has been linked to the new KP.3.1.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2. The Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) and the Ministry of Health have been closely monitoring the situation, as the transmissibility index (Rt) remains above the epidemic threshold.
SARS-CoV-2 KP.3.1.1 variant doubles COVID-19 cases to 13,672 in a week in Italy
Local
COVID-19 News coverages in Italy have also confirmed the rise in COVID-19 infections.
https://www.adnkronos.com/cronaca/covid-oggi-italia-contagi-varianti-iss_5zvBINma6pVDyH9pCfGhjp?refresh_ce
https://www.ansa.it/canale_saluteebenessere/notizie/sanita/2024/07/26/i-casi-di-covid-aumentati-di-oltre-il-50-nellultima-settimana_b3b0764f-9d01-44e3-832a-d235ac51031a.html
Monitoring the Spread: Rt Index and Hospitalizations
The transmissibility index Rt, based on data up to July 24, 2024, and calculated from cases requiring hospitalization, stands at 1.24, a slight increase from the previous week's 1.20. This index remains above the threshold of 1, indicating continued viral spread. COVID-19 hospitalizations are starting to increase, with 1,517 patients currently hospitalized (2.4%), while intensive care admissions remain stable at 38 patients (0.4%).
The impact on older age groups is particularly pronounced, with hospitalization rates at 47 per million inhabitants for those aged 80-89 and 86 per million for those over 90. Intensive care admissions are 1 per million for both age groups, and the mortality rate is 4 per million for individuals aged 80-89 and 12 per million for those over 90.
Rising Incidence and Regional Variations
The period between July 18 and 24 saw an incidence rate of 23 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, a slight increase from the previous week's 15 cases per 100,000. The highest incidence was reported in Campania (45 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), while Marche had the lowest (2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). The age groups recording the highest incidence rates are those between 80-89 years and those over 90 years.
Reinfections account for approximately 48% of cases, a slight decrease from the previous week. The median age at diagnosis has slightly decreased to 60 years.
The Role of Variants: KP.3.1.1 and JN1 Subvariants
The rise in cases is attributed to the increasing circulation of the KP.3.1.1 variant, alongside various subvariants of JN1. According to recent sequencing data from the national I-Co-Gen pl
atform, these variants are contributing to the heightened transmission of the virus.
Expert Insights: Predictable Patterns and Underestimation
Anna Teresa Palamara, Director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at ISS, highlights that the increase in cases is not unexpected. "The virus continues to circulate and mutate, producing new variants with varying transmission capabilities," she explained. Palamara also noted that the seasonal pattern of SARS-CoV-2 is not as clear-cut as that of other respiratory viruses, such as influenza.
She emphasized that immunity to infection is more fleeting than immunity to severe illness, which remains robust due to vaccination or previous infections. This transient immunity means that individuals can become susceptible to reinfection relatively soon after recovering from COVID-19.
Underreporting and Flu-like Symptoms
Palamara cautioned that the actual number of cases is likely higher than reported due to underdiagnosis. Many individuals may attribute their symptoms to other respiratory infections, especially since most infections present with flu-like symptoms. This underreporting complicates the accurate assessment of the virus's spread.
Data from other monitoring sites are indication infection rates are much higher than reported.
https://www.ilpandacentrostudio.it/coronavirus.html
Hospitalizations are also starting to gradually rise with mainly the elderly affected. Palamara stressed the importance of protecting vulnerable populations, especially the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, to prevent severe clinical outcomes.
Preparing for Autumn: Updated Vaccines and Preventive Measures
As the autumn season approaches, several updated vaccines targeting the circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2 are under evaluation. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has approved, or is in the process of approving, multiple vaccines that are effective against the JN.1 variant. (Whether they work will be another question!)
Palamara underscored the need to move away from the concept of sequential doses (third, fourth, fifth) and focus on timely vaccinations. "Before the winter season, when many respiratory viruses are expected to circulate, it is crucial for elderly and vulnerable individuals to protect themselves against COVID-19 and seasonal flu," she concluded. (Note that all the European health authorities are still focusing on vaccines and not antivirals!)
Looking Ahead: Continued Vigilance
The current increase in COVID-19 cases in Italy, driven by the KP.3.1.1 variant, serves as a reminder of the virus's persistent presence and evolving nature. Public health officials and experts continue to monitor the situation closely, emphasizing the importance of vaccinations and protective measures to mitigate the impact of future surges. As the world adapts to the ongoing challenge posed by COVID-19, vigilance and preparedness remain key in safeguarding public health.
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