Thailand Doctors Unveil ‘Hidden’ Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Post Periods Totaling About 112,880!
Thailand Doctors’ New Shocking Study Reveals Alarming Mortality Trends
A groundbreaking study has uncovered a staggering number of excess deaths in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-pandemic periods. Researchers found that approximately 112,880 additional deaths occurred between January 2020 and December 2023, far surpassing what was expected based on historical mortality trends. The study, conducted by
Thailand Doctors from Bhumibol Adulyadej Hospital, the Faculty of Medicine at Khon Kaen University, Ban Hua Nong Sub-District Health Promotion Hospital, and the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, sheds light on a concerning public health crisis that extends beyond the immediate impact of the pandemic.
Thailand Doctors Unveil ‘Hidden’ Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Post Periods
Totaling About 112,880!
The True Toll of COVID-19: Beyond Reported Deaths
According to the study, Thailand recorded 76,756 excess deaths between January 2020 and September 2022, during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The excess death rate, calculated using a negative binomial regression model, stood at a significant 5.24%. Even after the pandemic officially subsided, excess deaths continued at an alarming rate, with 36,126 additional deaths occurring between October 2022 and December 2023, representing a 5.26% increase over expected mortality rates.
This Medical News report underscores that these deaths were not limited to COVID-19 infections alone but also included indirect causes such as healthcare disruptions, economic hardships, and untreated medical conditions.
Regional Impact: Some Provinces Hit Harder Than Others
While excess mortality was observed nationwide, certain regions were more severely affected. The study revealed that three provinces - Bangkok, Samut Prakan, and Samut Sakhon - experienced significantly higher excess deaths during the pandemic. In contrast, during the post-pandemic phase, 15 provinces, including Chiang Mai, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Phitsanulok, reported increased mortality, although not at statistically significant levels. The reasons behind these variations remain unclear, but researchers suggest that differences in healthcare access, economic stability, and local pandemic response strategies may have played a role.
Pneumonia: The Leading Cause of Death During the Pandemic
One of the most striking findings of the study was the sharp increase in pneumonia-related deaths. The researchers found that many COVID-19-related fatalities were recorded under pneumonia rather than the virus itself, raising concerns about the accuracy of death certification. This discrepancy may have contributed to an underestimation of COVID-19's direct impact while inflating the overall mortality figures. The study also noted that elderly individuals, particularly those aged 65 and above, were disproportionately affected, accounting for the highest number of excess deaths.
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Understanding Excess Deaths: A More Accurate Measure of the Pandemic’s Impact
Excess mortality provides a clearer picture of the pandemic’s true toll compared to official COVID-19 death counts. This metric captures both direct deaths caused by the virus and indirect deaths resulting from overwhelmed healthcare systems, delayed medical treatments, and socioeconomic stressors. Previous estimates suggested that Thailand’s excess death rate was significantly lower than those of neighboring countries like Indonesia and the Philippines, but this new study challenges that perception.
Post-Pandemic Mortality: A New Health Crisis?
Despite the official end of the pandemic, Thailand continued to experience elevated mortality rates in 2023. The study's authors caution that long-term health consequences from COVID-19, combined with lingering economic hardships and healthcare system disruptions, may be fueling a new public health crisis. The persistence of excess deaths raises questions about whether the healthcare infrastructure has fully recovered and whether adequate support is available for those suffering from long-term complications of the disease.
What This Means for Thailand’s Public Health System
The findings of this study highlight several critical issues that policymakers must address. Firstly, the need for accurate death reporting and certification is paramount to understanding and responding effectively to public health threats.
Secondly, investments in healthcare infrastructure, especially in rural areas, must be prioritized to prevent future health crises. Lastly, long-term monitoring of post-pandemic health outcomes is essential to mitigate the lasting effects of COVID-19 on Thailand’s population.
Conclusion
The study’s revelation of 112,880 excess deaths in Thailand during and after the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the pandemic’s profound and far-reaching consequences. While the immediate crisis has passed, the lingering impact on public health remains a serious concern. The study’s authors emphasize the need for continued vigilance, improved healthcare policies, and comprehensive strategies to address both direct and indirect health challenges arising from the pandemic. Understanding these excess deaths is not just a statistical exercise - it is a crucial step toward building a more resilient and prepared healthcare system for the future.
The study findings were published in the peer-reviewed journal: Scientific Reports.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-85324-4
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