Thailand Medical Study Warns That Excess Death Rates Involving Children Are Rising After Termination of COVID-19 Surveillance
Nikhil Prasad Fact checked by:Thailand Medical News Team Jan 21, 2025 3 hours, 21 minutes ago
Thailand Medical: A concerning trend has emerged in Thailand, with leading medical researchers reporting a sharp increase in child mortality rates following the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing from a detailed study conducted by the Department of Pediatrics at Khon Kaen University and the Research Program in Pediatrics, the findings reveal critical insights into the effects of the pandemic and subsequent public health policy changes. This alarming development has prompted researchers to issue a warning and call for urgent action to address these rising mortality rates among children.
Thailand Medical Study Warn That Excess Death Rates Involving Children Rising After Termination of COVID-19
Surveillance
Key Findings of the Study
The study, spearheaded by a team led by Dr. Rattapon Uppala, Dr. Phanthila Sitthikarnkha, Dr. Sirapoom Niamsanit, Dr. Leelawadee Techasatian and Dr. Suchaorn Saengnipanthkul analysed data from the Thai Bureau of Registration Administration (BORA) spanning January 2015 to December 2023. Researchers employed a negative binomial distribution model, in line with World Health Organization (WHO) methodology, to compare expected mortality rates with actual figures.
This
Thailand Medical News report highlights a significant surge in excess child deaths after the termination of COVID-19 surveillance measures in October 2022.
During the study period, a total of 81,510 child deaths were recorded. The data revealed that the most affected age group was children under one year old, accounting for 45.5% of total deaths. Males also exhibited higher mortality rates compared to females. Strikingly, the study found that while child mortality declined during the pandemic due to stringent public health measures, the trend reversed sharply following the lifting of restrictions.
The Role of COVID-19 Policies in Mortality Trends
Thailand’s public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, including strict lockdowns and social distancing protocols, significantly impacted child mortality. Between January 2020 and September 2022, the average monthly excess mortality rate decreased, showing a P-score of -13.3%. Hygiene practices such as mask-wearing, reduced social interactions, and the curtailing of non-essential activities contributed to a decline in respiratory and infectious diseases among children.
However, the post-pandemic period, particularly after October 2022, presented a starkly different picture. Excess mortality among children surged, with a notable P-score of 13.0% recorded in the initial months following the cessation of COVID-19 surveillance measures. Children aged 2 to 3 years were the most affected, experiencing a sharp rise in deaths with a P-score of 18.7%. Researchers attribute this rebound to multiple factors, including increased exposure to pathogens, weakened immunity due to prolonged isolation, and disruptions in healthcare services during the pandemic.
Understanding the Immunity Debt
One of the study’s key
revelations is the concept of “immunity debt.” Prolonged lockdowns and non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) during the pandemic reduced exposure to common pathogens, which in turn diminished natural immunity among children. As restrictions were lifted, children were suddenly exposed to a wide range of infections, resulting in a spike in illnesses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and Group A Streptococcus. This immunity gap is believed to have played a significant role in the post-pandemic mortality surge.
Globally, similar trends have been observed. For instance, Finland reported a marked increase in emergency visits for respiratory infections in children after pandemic restrictions were relaxed. These findings underscore the importance of balancing public health measures with maintaining natural immunity cycles, especially for vulnerable populations like young children.
Healthcare System Challenges
The increase in child mortality rates also sheds light on potential strains within Thailand’s healthcare system. During the pandemic, healthcare resources were heavily focused on managing COVID-19 cases, leading to disruptions in routine pediatric care. Post-pandemic, the resumption of services faced challenges such as a backlog of untreated conditions and delayed diagnoses. Researchers suggest that these factors likely contributed to the observed rise in mortality rates.
Policy Implications and Recommendations
The study’s authors emphasize the need for proactive measures to address these alarming trends. Key recommendations include:
-Strengthening Public Health Surveillance: Implementing robust monitoring systems to track child health trends and detect emerging issues early.
-Enhancing Healthcare Access: Ensuring equitable access to pediatric care, particularly for marginalized communities.
-Educational Campaigns: Raising awareness among parents and caregivers about the importance of routine healthcare visits and hygiene practices.
Conclusions
The findings from this comprehensive study reveal a troubling rise in child mortality rates in Thailand following the COVID-19 pandemic. While public health measures during the pandemic successfully reduced mortality rates, their abrupt cessation led to a significant rebound in deaths, particularly among young children. The interplay between immunity debt, healthcare system challenges, and policy changes highlights the complex nature of this issue.
Moving forward, it is essential to adopt adaptable public health strategies that prioritize the well-being of children. Efforts must focus on mitigating the long-term impacts of the pandemic, strengthening healthcare systems, and ensuring that future policy decisions are informed by comprehensive data and research. Addressing these challenges will be crucial in preventing similar trends in future public health crises.
The study findings were published in the peer-reviewed journal: BMC Public Health.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-025-21484-2
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