The SARS-CoV-2 variants that could drive the fall-winter wave: XEC, XED, MB.1.1, MW.1 and XDV.1.1

Medical News: As the world continues to battle the ongoing pandemic, the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants remains a critical concern for global health. With the fall and winter seasons approaching, scientists are closely monitoring several new variants that could potentially drive the next wave of infections. Among the contenders are the recombinant variants XEC and XED, along with others like MB.1.1, MW.1, and XDV.1.1, have garnered significant attention due to their rapid spread and potential impact on public health.


The emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants that could drive the fall-winter wave: XEC, XED, MB.1.1, MW.1 and XDV.1.1

XEC: The Fastest-Spreading Lineage
One of the most notable new variants is XEC, a recombinant of KS.1.1 (FLiRT) and KP.3.3 (FLuQE). First detected in Berlin in late June 2024, XEC has shown an unprecedented growth rate, making it a likely contender against the currently dominant DeFLuQE variants, such as KP.3.1.1 and its descendants.
https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/2717

https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nucMutations=C18657T%2CC19716T%2CC25006T

XEC has spread rapidly across Europe, North America, and Asia, with hundreds of samples reported from 15 countries across three continents.

In the United States, it now represents 0.25% of all samples collected.
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard

The unique characteristics of XEC, including the spike T22N mutation in combination with FLuQE mutations, may give it a significant advantage in transmissibility.

It also contains the spike F59S mutation.

Reports indicate that XEC is growing at a rate of 3.8% per day, translating to a weekly growth of 27%, the fastest of any known variant. While it remains in the early stages of spread, experts anticipate that XEC could become more prevalent by September or later, particularly in countries like Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands, where its presence has already been noted.

XED: A New Recombinant with Immune Evasion Potential
Another variant of concern is XED, a recombinant of JN.1.4 and LF.1.1.1.
https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/2691

https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nucMutations=A13308G%2CT18453C%2CC25350T

Although XED has not yet gained the same level of attention as XEC, it presents its own set of challenges. Dubbed DeFLiRT with a JN.1.4-Orf1ab, XED has sparked discussions aroundits potential to evade the immune system, complicating efforts to control its spread. While data on XED is still emerging, its presence alongside XEC suggests that the virus continues to evolve in ways that could undermine current public health measures.

The Global Spread of New Variants
In addition to XEC and XED, several other variants are being closely watched by the scientific community. These include MB.1.1 from India, XDV.1.1 from China, KP.3.3.1 from Japan, and MW.1 from the United States. Each of these variants represents a different regional lineage with the potential to drive local outbreaks, further complicating the global pandemic response.

For instance, MB.1.1 from India has shown a similar growth pattern to XEC, raising concerns about its potential to spread beyond the Indian subcontinent.
https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nextcladePangoLineage=MB.1.1*

Similarly, XDV.1.1 from China and KP.3.3.1 from Japan highlight the ongoing risk of regional variants contributing to new waves of infections.
https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?aaMutations=S%3AS60P&nucMutations=C1170T%2CC6501A%2CT22926C%2CC11572T%2CT22930A%2CT4579A%2CT9208G

MW.1 from the United States also adds to the complexity of the situation, as it may interact with other variants to create new recombinant strains.
https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?aaMutations=ORF1a%3AT2121A%2CS%3AQ239R%2CORF1a%3AI785V%2CORF6%3AL16I&nextcladePangoLineage=KP.2.3*

Public Sentiment, Scientific Response and The Impact of New Variants on Public Health
The emergence of these new variants has led to a mix of public sentiment, ranging from fatigue to heightened vigilance. On social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter), users express concern over the continuous emergence of new variants, reflecting a broader narrative about the virus's persistence and the challenges it poses to global health.

There are actually hundreds of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and sub-lineages being spawned each day and just in term of fast transmissible variants and sub-linages with the right fitness, there are almost 165 new variants and sub-lineages with such capabilities that have emerged and are in circulation though they have yet to become predominant nor usurp the KP.3.1.1 variant just yet.
https://cov-spectrum.org/collections/42

Scientific communities are also closely monitoring these developments. But many experts are questioning the effectiveness of new boosters that are to be released in coming days. These new boosters contain the KP.2 variant which has since been vanquished in circulation.

Thailand Medical News cannot comment as to whether these new variants are more pathogenic or virulent with resulting increase in disease severity as we do not have any data at this stage.Theer has been no studies ocnducted on thes newly emerged variants and sub-lineages so far.

The emergence of XEC, XED, and other variants underscores the dynamic nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Through recombination, the virus continues to adapt, potentially leading to changes in transmissibility, severity, and immune escape. These developments necessitate a robust global surveillance system, continuous research, and potentially updated vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of these variants.

As we move into the fall and winter seasons, the focus will likely shift towards understanding the full impact of these new variants. This includes assessing their interaction with existing immunity from previous infections or vaccinations and determining how they might influence the future trajectory of the pandemic. The ongoing saga with SARS-CoV-2 variants not only challenges our scientific understanding but also tests our global cooperation and preparedness against future health crises.

More Pathogenic Variants on the Horizon
Many experts and virologist are also warning that the next newer variants to emerge could be more pathogenic and many are expecting a bad fall and winter surge.

A new video by a Dr. Mikolaj Raszek that is trending on Youtube explains the reasons behind the hypothesis as to why more pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 variants are next expected.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMEUAFGt0ts&t=2s

His views have been echoed by another expert Dr Geert Vanden Bossche who has been warning about this for a while now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAtg85QEKGk
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDQte8OI9es&t=74s
 
https://x.com/GVDBossche
 
https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/

Looking Ahead: The Role of Updated Vaccines
While these emerging variants could drive the next wave of infections, the introduction of new COVID-19 boosters containing the KP.2 variant could also influence the virus's evolution. The possibility exists that these vaccines might steer the virus in a new direction, leading to the emergence of newer variants just in time for the fall and winter seasons.

In conclusion, the emergence of variants like XEC, XED, MB.1.1, MW.1, and XDV.1.1 highlights the ongoing challenges in the fight against COVID-19. As the virus continues to evolve, it is crucial for the global community to remain vigilant, adapt public health strategies, and stay ahead of the curve to prevent another devastating wave of infections.

For the latest on the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, keep on logging to Thailand Medical News.

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