U.S. COVID-19 News: Delta Variant Projected To Cause An Additional 157,000 Deaths in American From August To December 2021 In The Best Scenario!

U.S. COVID-19 News: A new study involving a COVID-19 simulator platform by researchers from Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Georgia Institute of Technology and Boston University School of Medicine has projected that in the best scenario, at least another 157,000 Americans would die from the COVID-19 disease between the 1^st Of August to the end of December 2021.

To date American has already recorded more than 2.9 million COVID-19 infections and more than 624,253 COVID-19 deaths officially. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
 
Many are saying that the real figures in America could be about 1.6 times more.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/06/994287048/new-study-estimates-more-than-900-000-people-have-died-of-covid-19-in-u-s
 
https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/five-reasons-why-real-number-covid-19-deaths-could-be-triple-official-number
 
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/accurate-us-coronavirus-death-count-experts-off-tens/story?id=70385359
 
America is also experiencing a very high excess death rate compared to any time in its past history.
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
 
The study team employed their model to analyze scenarios where the Delta variant becomes dominant in every state. The combination of high transmissibility of the Delta variant, low vaccination coverage in several regions, and more relaxed attitude towards social distancing is expected to result in as surge in COVID-19 deaths in at least 40 states. In several states including Idaho, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Washington, and West Virginia, the projected daily deaths in 2021 could exceed the prior peak daily deaths under current social distancing behavior and vaccination rate.
 
The team warned that in the best scenario, the number of COVID-19 deaths across the U.S. could exceed 1600 per day. Between August 1, 2021, and December 31, 2021, there could be additional 157,000 COVID-19 deaths across the U.S.
 
Interestingly, the study team’s model projected approximately 20,700 COVID-19 deaths in Texas, 16,000 in California, 12,400 in Florida, 12,000 in North Carolina, and 9,300 in Georgia during this period. In contrast, the projected number of COVID-19 deaths would remain below 200 in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, and Rhode Island.
 
The study team projected COVID-19 deaths based on the current vaccination rates and social distancing behavior. They  hope is that the findings of this report serve a warning sign and people revert to wearing masks and maintain soc ial distancing to reduce COVID-19 associated deaths in the U.S.
 
Their projections are updated weekly by incorporating vaccination rates and social distancing measures in each state; the latest results can be found at the COVID-19 Simulator website. https://www.covid19sim.org/
 
The study findings were published on a preprint server and are currently being peer reviewed.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.11.21261845v1

The alarming emergence of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) in the United States has backtracked many plans to return to a pre-COVID era. A surge in COVID-19 cases due to the Delta variant has caused a rise in COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations after what was previously a steady decline during the summer.
 
Ever since July 31, the Delta variant makes up 82% of coronavirus cases in the United States. The study findings suggest the United States is on course to have Delta become the dominant coronavirus variant in every state.
 
Considering low vaccination rates and reducing social distancing behavior in many states including in Idaho, Washington, Montana, and more, the number of daily deaths is expected to rise in at least 40 states.


Model-estimated daily COVID-19 deaths in each state grouped by U.S. census division. The combination of high transmissibility of the Delta variant, low vaccination coverage in several regions, and more relaxed attitude towards social distancing is expected to result in a surge in COVID-19 deaths in at least 40 states.

Co-author Dr Jagpreet Chhatwal from Massachusetts General Hospital Institute for Technology Assessment-Boston told Thailand Medical News, “Our hope is that the findings of this report serve a warning sign and people revert to wearing masks and maintain social distancing to reduce COVID-19 associated deaths in the U.S.”
 
It should be note that the predicted number of Delta-related cases and death is constantly changing as states take countermeasures to enforce vaccination and social distancing measures. Updated projections occur weekly and are found on the COVID-19 simulator website.


Past (black) and projected (red) COVID-19 deaths in each state until December 31, 2021.

The study team modeled the trajectory of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths each state will experience until the end of 2021. The model took into account people’s attitudes towards mask-wearing and state vaccination rates.
 
In the case of vaccinated individuals, the model assumed vaccines would reduce the likelihood of getting infected by 80% with one dose and 90% with two doses.
 
Importantly if social distancing behaviors such as mask-wearing and vaccination rates do not increase, the researchers predict states in Idaho, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, Washington, West Virginia, as well as Puerto Rico will exceed their current 2021 peak of coronavirus deaths.
 
However in contrast, the Northeast is not expected to have a significant rise in Delta-related deaths. Modeling data shows COVID-19 deaths from the beginning of August to the end of 2021 to be less than 200 in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, and Rhode Island.
 
Dr Chhatwal added, “Because of differences in population-level immunity from previous infection and vaccination, as well as attitudes towards social distancing (e.g., mask use) across states, the Delta variant could disproportionately impact some states by causing resurgence in cases and hospitalizations.”
 
However it should be noted that the study only focused on the Delta variant. Many other researchers from other institutions are warning that the prevalence of the Gamma and Lambda variants are also growing in the United States along with the fact that more second and third generation variants are also emerging from these present VOCs or variants of concern and also other more potent variants are already emerging that totally evade all immunity including that from vaccines but have yet to acquire the correct fitness and transmissibility enhancement.
 
Should such variants become more dominant in the United States, the projections are far more worrisome and already its being warned that such scenarios are becoming a high probability towards the last quarter of 2021 as fall sets in.
 
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